Predictions Where Will Mortgage Rates Go

Mortgage rates have climbed to their highest in almost 22 years and this has drastically impacted buyers who are financing their real estate purchase. What does this mean for the real estate market? As with so much over the last few years, it is difficult to predict and we have seen markets react differently than conventional wisdom holds. 

Below is a summary of where 8 leading research firms expect rates in Q4 2023 and beyond. Will this lead to a buying frenzie in 2025? Only time will tell. But for now low inventory of homes For Sale is keeping prices strong in the Central Oregon market. 

• The MBA: The trade group projects that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 5.9% in Q4 2023. Beyond this year, the group expects mortgage rates to slide to 4.9% by Q4 2024.
• Morningstar: Economists at Morningstar project that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 6.25% in 2023, 5.0% in 2024, and 4.0% in 2025.
• Goldman Sachs: The investment bank projects that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will end 2023 at 6.4%. In 2024, Goldman Sachs expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 5.9%.
• The National Association of Realtors: Economists at NAR forecast that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will slide to 6.4% before the end of 2023, and then to 6.0% in 2024.
• Morgan Stanley: The Agency MBS strategists at Morgan Stanley project that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will start 2024 at 6.0%.
• Moody’s Analytics: The financial intelligence arm of Moody’s still projects that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 6.5% through most of 2023.
• Realtor.com: Economists at the home listing site believe the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will start 2024 at 6.1%.
• Fannie Mae: Economists at Fannie Mae forecast that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 6.6% in Q4 2023. Then Fannie Mae expects mortgage rates to grind down to an average of 5.9% in Q4 2024. For the calendar year, Fannie Mae expects mortgage rates to average 6.1% in 2024.

Whether your looking to buy or sell your home, I'm here to guide you to meeting your real estate goals. Reach out today to get in touch with me.